A Scientist's Life in Eve

Odyssey – some predictions

by on May.31, 2013, under Eve online

Odyssey is coming, there’s no getting round it.  If you want to catch up on some of the changes, you can read the following Dev Blogs:

Each of the above topics also have their own forum thread for comments, all of which can be found here.

So, assuming you’re read and digested all of the above, I can make a few predictions.

Tech II Production and the Cascade Effect
CCP are making a massive change to Tech II production, so much so that most items will be affected, including things as simple as the Damage Control II, right through to Strip Miner II’s, as well as every single Tech II ship from the humble Buzzard through to the mighty Anshar.

Interestingly, turrets are not affected, as their construction does not require any of the affected components, however the missile launchers are affected, as missiles need processors (presumably to programme the missile with its target), whereas turrets just turn and fire, so another stealth nerf to the Drake?  If so, affecting every single ship that fires missiles was probably a little harsh :P

The main problem here, is that unless you have the different racial Microprocessors and Capacitor Units pre-constructed before Odyssey, you won’t actually be able to build them after patch downtime until you can acquire some of the new Racial Composites to use in the build process.  There are reasonable stocks of all normal Microprocessors in Jita right now at build cost + 20% for normal.  Capital Microprocessor stocks are not good, and the prices are ranging from build cost + 80% to 20x build cost.  As to capacitor units, once again there are reasonable quantities available (unless you want to build an Amarr ship), although the price is nearer build + 30% in this case.  Capital Capacitor units have woeful stock levels and prices start at build + 33% and get significantly worse very quickly.

So what’s about to happen here?  T2 items will suffer from some serious market shenanigans (I like that word).  Be prepared for large scale fluctuations in both price and availability of items.  Many people will have either purchased or constructed a stock of something, and will be expecting to get a good return on that, so supply will not necessarily be affected by the patch in the short term per se, but it will be controlled by those who have speculated and wish to maximise their return.

As I’ve speculated in a previous blog post that the changes will add cost to the production process, and if Nanotransistors held their price (which they almost certainly won’t), then an Arazu post patch could be as much as 80% more expensive than pre-patch.  In reality a number of things will happen once the market has settled down a bit.

Firstly, Technetium is going to drop in price, it is no longer the bottleneck in T2 production that it was before, the new Racial Composites will join in the importance of producing certain components.  However, Technetium prices are unlikely to half, and Nanotransistors aren’t made up of Tech alone, so they won’t half in price either.

Secondly, for each Racial Composite, around 69 new moons will be seeded.  As CCP have bizzarely set the output of the Racial Composites at only 300 per hour, that effectively means that around 1 million units of each Racial Composite could be made per day, assuming that these new moons were exclusively used for this process and nothing else – that’s based on 100 units of moon goo per hour makes 200 units of intermediate material per hour which runs two reactions of 300 units of Racial Composites per hour, so 600 x 69 x 24.

You could also try to be fair and add in that maybe half of the Neo Mercurite used for Nanotransistor production is also used for making Matarium, but as that only affects one Racial Composite, we’ll discount it for now.

So, 1 million units per day produced.  Unfortunately, around 20 million units of Nanotransistors are sold a day in Jita alone, so add in the other Regional Hubs and… well, we have a serious problem here in quantity.  This should, in theory, make the new Racial Composites very expensive, but the market simply won’t support, for instance, a 300 million ISK Arazu or a 70 million ISK Bomber for example.

CCP will, I believe, have to fix this.  Somewhere, somehow, I must have my numbers wrong by several levels, as if this is what it is, then everybody who makes or uses Tech II items is pretty much screwed.

The price fluctuations and supply issues will almost certainly result in people moving more towards Tech I ships, and in particular Faction ships, especially with some of the changes to the ships and the new Battlecruisers – it mostly sounds good (even the mini-nerfs some things are getting – I’m looking at you Mr Flabber).

Something needs to change, or somebody please needs to show me where my calculations are wrong, and quickly.

Probe Scanner Changes
Again, I’ve already written about these changes, and the post has received quite a few comments on both sides of the fence.  Ultimately I believe it will increase the production need for Mobile Warp Bubbles and will also result in quite a rise in kills of mining ships and their support (i.e. Orcas and Rorquals)… perhaps that’s why CCP added base minerals to ABC’s and Spud to try and compensate for the numbers of ships that will have to be rebuilt.

Eve is ultimately a PvP game, however it is so unique in the way it relies on the industry players to keep the game going by supplying the player market, rather than how Dust 514 currently operates in that you have an unlimited market supply of everything no matter where in the universe you are – I’ve heard that there are plans to change that in the future, but I’m simply using it as an example for now.

If you change the game so much to annoy, frustrate and upset the industry players so much that they leave the game, then Eve is in trouble.  Think back to the mass un-subs when walking in your room was launched.  I’ve spoken to plenty of industrialists and miners who are going to wait and see what happens after the patch, but all of them are very concerned at the grav site scan clasification change and for a number of them it could be game breaking for them.

Before people shout “carebear tears” and HTFU now you can’t hide in your little sites, you should look at the kill board for rental alliances, which are the home of many of the null sec mining powerhouses – I think you’ll see that there is certainly plenty of risk involved for the reward – this tips the balance even further.  The next nerf would be to remove the forcefield from a POS so you can’t safe up – not every system has an Outpost, and often the Outpost is not a safe place to warp to when a hostile enters system.  But surely CCP would never do that… right?

Tags for Security Status
Many pirates who get the coveted -10 treat it as a trophy, but for some who end up with a negative sec status they want to “fix” it, for example the null sec corp roam that chases a group into lo-sec and engages them there.  Ratting up your sec status to something manageable is not quick – this I think is a good idea and probably long overdue.

Hacking
Looks pretty – I’ll probably have to try it out sometime.  Could also be a massive distraction so you don’t notice the ship approaching to explode you :P

Dual Character Training
It took them this long?

Starbase Iterations
Once again… it took them this long?

Other things
I’ve heard rumours that they’re trying to change it so that only Directors can cancel Corp Jobs, with members being able to only cancel those that they started – please please please please please x 1 million