A Scientist's Life in Eve

Odyssey – some predictions

by on May.31, 2013, under Eve online

Odyssey is coming, there’s no getting round it.  If you want to catch up on some of the changes, you can read the following Dev Blogs:

Each of the above topics also have their own forum thread for comments, all of which can be found here.

So, assuming you’re read and digested all of the above, I can make a few predictions.

Tech II Production and the Cascade Effect
CCP are making a massive change to Tech II production, so much so that most items will be affected, including things as simple as the Damage Control II, right through to Strip Miner II’s, as well as every single Tech II ship from the humble Buzzard through to the mighty Anshar.

Interestingly, turrets are not affected, as their construction does not require any of the affected components, however the missile launchers are affected, as missiles need processors (presumably to programme the missile with its target), whereas turrets just turn and fire, so another stealth nerf to the Drake?  If so, affecting every single ship that fires missiles was probably a little harsh :P

The main problem here, is that unless you have the different racial Microprocessors and Capacitor Units pre-constructed before Odyssey, you won’t actually be able to build them after patch downtime until you can acquire some of the new Racial Composites to use in the build process.  There are reasonable stocks of all normal Microprocessors in Jita right now at build cost + 20% for normal.  Capital Microprocessor stocks are not good, and the prices are ranging from build cost + 80% to 20x build cost.  As to capacitor units, once again there are reasonable quantities available (unless you want to build an Amarr ship), although the price is nearer build + 30% in this case.  Capital Capacitor units have woeful stock levels and prices start at build + 33% and get significantly worse very quickly.

So what’s about to happen here?  T2 items will suffer from some serious market shenanigans (I like that word).  Be prepared for large scale fluctuations in both price and availability of items.  Many people will have either purchased or constructed a stock of something, and will be expecting to get a good return on that, so supply will not necessarily be affected by the patch in the short term per se, but it will be controlled by those who have speculated and wish to maximise their return.

As I’ve speculated in a previous blog post that the changes will add cost to the production process, and if Nanotransistors held their price (which they almost certainly won’t), then an Arazu post patch could be as much as 80% more expensive than pre-patch.  In reality a number of things will happen once the market has settled down a bit.

Firstly, Technetium is going to drop in price, it is no longer the bottleneck in T2 production that it was before, the new Racial Composites will join in the importance of producing certain components.  However, Technetium prices are unlikely to half, and Nanotransistors aren’t made up of Tech alone, so they won’t half in price either.

Secondly, for each Racial Composite, around 69 new moons will be seeded.  As CCP have bizzarely set the output of the Racial Composites at only 300 per hour, that effectively means that around 1 million units of each Racial Composite could be made per day, assuming that these new moons were exclusively used for this process and nothing else – that’s based on 100 units of moon goo per hour makes 200 units of intermediate material per hour which runs two reactions of 300 units of Racial Composites per hour, so 600 x 69 x 24.

You could also try to be fair and add in that maybe half of the Neo Mercurite used for Nanotransistor production is also used for making Matarium, but as that only affects one Racial Composite, we’ll discount it for now.

So, 1 million units per day produced.  Unfortunately, around 20 million units of Nanotransistors are sold a day in Jita alone, so add in the other Regional Hubs and… well, we have a serious problem here in quantity.  This should, in theory, make the new Racial Composites very expensive, but the market simply won’t support, for instance, a 300 million ISK Arazu or a 70 million ISK Bomber for example.

CCP will, I believe, have to fix this.  Somewhere, somehow, I must have my numbers wrong by several levels, as if this is what it is, then everybody who makes or uses Tech II items is pretty much screwed.

The price fluctuations and supply issues will almost certainly result in people moving more towards Tech I ships, and in particular Faction ships, especially with some of the changes to the ships and the new Battlecruisers – it mostly sounds good (even the mini-nerfs some things are getting – I’m looking at you Mr Flabber).

Something needs to change, or somebody please needs to show me where my calculations are wrong, and quickly.

Probe Scanner Changes
Again, I’ve already written about these changes, and the post has received quite a few comments on both sides of the fence.  Ultimately I believe it will increase the production need for Mobile Warp Bubbles and will also result in quite a rise in kills of mining ships and their support (i.e. Orcas and Rorquals)… perhaps that’s why CCP added base minerals to ABC’s and Spud to try and compensate for the numbers of ships that will have to be rebuilt.

Eve is ultimately a PvP game, however it is so unique in the way it relies on the industry players to keep the game going by supplying the player market, rather than how Dust 514 currently operates in that you have an unlimited market supply of everything no matter where in the universe you are – I’ve heard that there are plans to change that in the future, but I’m simply using it as an example for now.

If you change the game so much to annoy, frustrate and upset the industry players so much that they leave the game, then Eve is in trouble.  Think back to the mass un-subs when walking in your room was launched.  I’ve spoken to plenty of industrialists and miners who are going to wait and see what happens after the patch, but all of them are very concerned at the grav site scan clasification change and for a number of them it could be game breaking for them.

Before people shout “carebear tears” and HTFU now you can’t hide in your little sites, you should look at the kill board for rental alliances, which are the home of many of the null sec mining powerhouses – I think you’ll see that there is certainly plenty of risk involved for the reward – this tips the balance even further.  The next nerf would be to remove the forcefield from a POS so you can’t safe up – not every system has an Outpost, and often the Outpost is not a safe place to warp to when a hostile enters system.  But surely CCP would never do that… right?

Tags for Security Status
Many pirates who get the coveted -10 treat it as a trophy, but for some who end up with a negative sec status they want to “fix” it, for example the null sec corp roam that chases a group into lo-sec and engages them there.  Ratting up your sec status to something manageable is not quick – this I think is a good idea and probably long overdue.

Looks pretty – I’ll probably have to try it out sometime.  Could also be a massive distraction so you don’t notice the ship approaching to explode you :P

Dual Character Training
It took them this long?

Starbase Iterations
Once again… it took them this long?

Other things
I’ve heard rumours that they’re trying to change it so that only Directors can cancel Corp Jobs, with members being able to only cancel those that they started – please please please please please x 1 million

4 Comments for this entry

  • macker

    It sounds as if production for some items will slow for a while, then greatly increase in cost. If you’re an industrialist the wise move might be to try a new game for a couple of months, then come back to EVE after things have settled. Most of my T2 production will stop for a few months, as I focus on producing items not affected by the changes.

    Bottom line is that we produce for profit. If we buy materials while prices are too high, then profits suffer. No reason to produce.

    CCP usually fixes their errors, though it takes them a while. We’ll get our game back over time, assuming your calculations are correct. Oh, BTW how does alchemy figure in to your calculations.

    I don’t live in null, and have never attempted moon mining.

    • A scientists life in Eve

      I haven’t included any alchemy in my calculations as it takes five simple reactors just to produce the equivalent output from one of the new moons. However, we will definitely be doing alchemy as I think it will be a very good income stream until CCP fix output quantities (assuming my numbers aren’t completely wrong). Alchemy could be the thing that props up a failing T2 production process.

      Your comments about leaving the game or doing something other than T2 production perfectly illustrates how badly CCP may have got this

      • Macker

        My 3 accounts don’t completely unsub until mid July. So I’ll watch the market with some interest. Today I’m looking at other games and playing with the dogs. ;)

        Good luck with your alchemy! Hope the moon goo pays off for you.

  • Suff

    Just a thought on the dual char training thing. I get to pay an additional plex… to train 2 toons at the same time… and get to only use one….. Not interested.

    As the bulk of my eve time is spent mining or tending our Goo operations, I’m fascinated by the little details of this new shakeup. Alchemy got doubled in effective output. Was this to address the shortfalls of alchemy being a serious contender? Or perhaps an intentional next step into easing Alchemy into the mainstream. If it ever gets closer to a 1 to 1, then I think it will be worth the investment. But there is one question that is still nagging me, is this truly an attempt to “break” the power base of major alliances? Alchemy is still too little juice for far too much squeeze, and changing the bottleneck location merely means that some other moon goo will become outrageously priced.

    I do have to say this though. Thank you CCP for finally making Spodumain worth my time. Matter of fact, leave everything but that out, and I for one would celebrate this update as the best one ever!

    Ultimately as an indy player, I’ve invested billions in ships, system upgrades, pods and advance scout alts. I don’t mind the game the way it is, to a point. For everyone shouting HTFU to miners, then I propose you leave off your cloak when you come knocking. I’m more than happy to engage in pvp when the opportunity arises, but sitting around while a cloaky camps a system is just plain boring. As with the answer to the first issue being “go be bait” a rather worthless option, it does make sense that CCP would open the door to “Don’t bother running, you’re screwed.” Why not give scissors and rock a boost and give us something to actively hunt afk/cloaky campers? A 2-3 day old toon if done right can run a cloak with a point and camp a system. And be a serious threat to players who’ve invested billions with absolutely no tools available to engage actively on the camped players part.

    I’ll play for a bit and hope that things come to pass a bit more friendly than they seem. But for all I and my corpmates have invested to simply become our own personal trap….. not interested.

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